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Is It The End Yet?

Near-Earth object context

Asteroids: close approaches are not impact forecasts

An asteroid passing near Earth is not the same thing as an asteroid predicted to hit Earth. This category preserves that distinction at every layer. Distance, velocity, object size, orbital uncertainty, and a provider's explicit risk assessment describe different facts; none may be promoted into an impact warning simply because a headline-friendly number looks small.

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Current evidence
Unavailable

Current evidence

Current asteroid evidence

The current panel will accept only typed observations from a source whose commercial storage and redistribution terms pass the rights gate. Close approaches and impact-risk entries remain separate records.

CNEOS and Sentry remain conditional, so no production close-approach list, risk entry, or persistent asteroid observation is displayed. Unavailable data is not evidence that no objects are approaching Earth.

Asteroids

Unavailable
Component score
—
Freshness state
Unavailable
Observed
No approved current observation
Source completeness0%

Near-Earth object context

Three ideas that must not be collapsed

A close approach describes a predicted geometry at a particular time, with a miss distance and relative velocity. A monitoring entry describes an uncertainty calculation that may change as observations improve. A confirmed impact would require explicit authoritative evidence. The model stores these concepts separately so proximity cannot manufacture a risk classification.

Potentially hazardous object is also a technical category, not a prediction of imminent harm. Long observation arcs and new measurements usually refine orbital uncertainty. Until source-specific commercial use, storage, and normalized redistribution rights are sufficiently explicit, this site keeps its provider-neutral interfaces but publishes no production asteroid feed.

Methodology

Asteroid terms worth separating

  1. Close approach

    A time, distance, and velocity observation that does not by itself indicate impact risk.

  2. Impact assessment

    A provider-supported probability or scale value with its own observation and revision history.

  3. Orbital uncertainty

    A changing measurement context that explains why predictions are refined as new observations arrive.

Freshness state

Why orbital data needs timestamps

Approach calculations and risk tables can be revised after new observations. A future production view must show the source update time and expire old assessments rather than presenting them as current.

Current view calculated:

Provenance

Sources and usage boundaries

The public source registry is unavailable. Source decisions remain fail-closed.

SourceRights decisionProduction stateAttribution and limits
NASA/JPL CNEOSConditionalNot enabled for production

Potential close-approach context would be attributed to NASA/JPL CNEOS with the applicable provider timestamp and object identity.

Conditional. Production ingestion, persistent storage, and normalized redistribution remain blocked pending sufficiently explicit usage confirmation.
NASA SentryConditionalNot enabled for production

Any future impact-risk assessment would retain the NASA Sentry record, observation date, and source-supported risk classification.

Conditional. A close approach is never converted into impact risk, and no production Sentry data is stored while the rights gate is unresolved.

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